TEI@I方法论是一种结合传统的统计技术与新型的人工智能技术的方法论 ,是基于“文本挖掘 ( Textmining) + 经济计量 ( Econometrics) + 智能技术 ( Intelligence) @集成技术( Integration)” 而形成的.在复杂系统的分析与研究中 ,TEI@I方法论体现了 “先分解后集成” 的思想 ,首先将复杂系统分解 ,利用经济计量模型分析复杂系统呈现的主要趋势 ,利用人工智能技术分析复杂系统的非线性与不确定性 ,然后利用文本挖掘等技术分析复杂系统的突现性与不稳定性 ,最后基于集成的思想 ,把以上分解的复杂系统的各个部分集成起来 ,形成对复杂系统总体的分析与建模 ,从而达到分析复杂系统的目的.
由于国际油价具有高度的波动性、复杂性和不规则性,不仅油价
具有线性和非线性特征,而且油价经常受一些不规则性突发事件的影
响,这种影响往往对油价产生重要影响,因此线性模型或非线性模型
及二者的混合都不能充分建模与预测。除了线性模型和非线性模型之
外,有必要导入新技术来捕捉这种不规则性的突发事件的影响。
This project is to produce software which can forecast crude oil price via TEI@I methodology.
Basically, crude oil price is determined by its supply and demand, and is strongly influenced by many irregular future events like the weather, stock levels, GDP growth, political aspects and even people’s expectation.
The above facts lead to a strongly fluctuating and interacting market whose fundamental mechanism governing the complex dynamics is not well understood. Furthermore, because sharp oil price movements are likely to disturb aggregate economic activity, researchers have shown considerable interests for volatile oil prices.
Therefore, forecasting oil prices is an important and very hard topic due to its intrinsic difficulty and practical applications.
TEI@I methodology is a combination of traditional statistical techniques and artificial intelligence technology, the new methodology is based on the format of "Textmining + Econometrics + Intelligence + Integration". In complex systems analysis and research, TEI @ I methodology reflects the thinking of "from decomposition to integration". In the first place, we shall decompose the complex systems. We can make use of econometric models of complex systems to present the main trends, then utilize artificial intelligence technology to analyze complex systems of nonlinear and uncertainties. And secondly we analyze the emergence and instability of complex systems using text mining technologies. Finally, based on the idea of integration, we congregate the various parts of the above decomposed complex systems together to form the analysis and modeling of overall complex system, so that we could achieve the purpose of analyzing complex systems.